UK AI economic forecasts under scrutiny after google-backed figure is challenged

The UK government's initial projection that artificial intelligence could inject £400 billion into the economy has been questioned, as the figure originated from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First. AI minister Kanishka Narayan clarified that the government's own, more recent assessment suggests AI adoption and data investment could add between £55 billion and £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion. Jonathan Dupont, head of economics at PF Global, explained the discrepancy, noting that the government's models assume a significantly slower rate of AI adoption than what was possible when the original 2023 model was created. Despite the minister's clarification, the £400 billion figure was used by government departments for nearly two years across two administrations. Dame Chi Onwurah, Labour MP chairing the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, cautioned against hype, stating that overstating benefits risks undermining the case for digital transformation. Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute warned that figures often contain built-in incentives, urging the government to fund independent research before basing policy on AI projections.